Jesper Karlström
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesper Karlström's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (3153 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3153 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -61% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | DM | 36 | 3153 | 92% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1502 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | DM | 37 | 3190 | 93% | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1502 | 1389 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 2 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walace Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alessandro Gazzi Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.1M | fell |
| Borja Oubiña Laliga · 2013 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mariano Izco Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.6M | flat |
| Javi Fuego Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €3.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Daniel Baier Bundesliga · 2014 | 30 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Damien Le Tallec Ligue 1 · 2020 | 30 | €3.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Roberto Soriano Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | Lech Poznan | Udinese | €2.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Djurgården | Lech Poznan | €800k | €1.5M |
| 30 Nov 2017 | Brommapojkarna | Djurgården | Free / loan | €500k |
| 10 Aug 2017 | Djurgården | Brommapojkarna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 22 Jan 2015 | Brommapojkarna | Djurgården | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2013 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Bromma Jgd. | IF Bromma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Hammarby Yth. | Bromma Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.