Kerim Mrabti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kerim Mrabti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1495 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €744k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1495 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1358
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €275k – €737k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -71% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1495 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 23 | 1495 | 55% | 5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 1358 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 27 | 2022 | 75% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 1366 | 1350 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 30 | 2549 | 94% | 7 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1389 | 1367 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 12 | 852 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 1298 | 1302 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 30 | 2482 | 81% | 10 | 7 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1342 | 1320 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 29 | 2345 | 77% | 6 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 1366 | 1365 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 10 | 805 | 0 | 1 | 1484 |
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | KV Mechelen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1497 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Jacques Gosso Super Lig · 2015 | 32 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Franck Berrier Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Artur Yusupov Premier Liga · 2020 | 31 | €2.2M | €2.5M | flat |
| Urby Emanuelson Eredivisie · 2019 | 33 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Fábio Coentrão Liga Portugal · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Thomas Kristensen Superliga · 2014 | 31 | €900k | €550k | fell |
| Walid Mesloub Ligue 1 · 2016 | 31 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Danijel Milicevic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 32 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | KV Mechelen | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Birmingham | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €650k |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Djurgården | Birmingham | Free / loan | €800k |
| 8 Feb 2015 | Sirius | Djurgården | Unknown | €100k |
| 3 Jan 2013 | Enköpings SK | Sirius | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.