Lautaro Giannetti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lautaro Giannetti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €625k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1794 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 17)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1287
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €302k – €824k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club; team strength down (-250 Elo); league level down (-234 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -66% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1794 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 29 | 1794 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1287 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 15 | 878 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1497 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 7 | 630 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1449 | 1420 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Tikhiy Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Cristian Montano Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €375k | €150k | fell |
| Eren Albayrak Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €900k | €125k | fell |
| Naldo Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €1.1M | €450k | fell |
| Ivan Novoseltsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Vasilios Lampropoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Arghus Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €75k | fell |
| Kristof D'Haene Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Udinese | Antalyaspor | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Vélez Sarsfield | Udinese | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vélez II | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Vélez U20 | Vélez II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.