Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mortadha Ben Ouanes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2279 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €438k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2279 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1254
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €372k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-65 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -70% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | LW | 28 | 2279 | 74% | 2 | 6 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 1254 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | LW | 32 | 2533 | 78% | 5 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 1293 | 1268 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | LB | 36 | 3001 | 88% | 6 | 5 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 1295 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | LB | 29 | 2387 | 74% | 4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 1285 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RW | 23 | 1503 | 44% | 3 | 6 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 1243 | 1312 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aylton Boa Morte Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Sokol Cikalleshi Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Ali Sowe Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.7M | €1.5M | flat |
| Amilton Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Efecan Karaca Super Lig · 2023 | 34 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Erik Jendrisek Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Javito Super League 1 · 2015 | 32 | €450k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2021 | ES Sahel | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €800k |
| 15 Jan 2018 | CA Bizertin | ES Sahel | €67k | €350k |
| 30 Jul 2015 | ES Sahel | CA Bizertin | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | US Monastir | ES Sahel | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | ES Sahel | US Monastir | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2012 | ESS U19 | ES Sahel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.