Nadiem Amiri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nadiem Amiri's performance-implied value at EUR 10.5M-48.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-16.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-12.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.97x the positional average in the league (2092 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €10.0M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2092 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €12.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -76% to -60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 2092 | 68% | 12 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.43 | 1472 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2484 | 81% | 7 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 1502 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 1319 | 43% | 1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 1529 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 8 | 82 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1476 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 970 | 32% | 4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 1514 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | AM | 13 | 684 | 20% | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.53 | 1549 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 13 | 362 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 1581 | 1639 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 1886 | 62% | 2 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1507 | 1563 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 1857 | 61% | 1 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1547 | 1654 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 13 | 758 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 1464 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 1741 | 57% | 2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1518 | 1579 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 1938 | 63% | 2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 1541 | 1592 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 25 | 1460 | 48% | 4 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1505 | 1428 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | RM | 7 | 328 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1582 | 1456 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 1335 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 169 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 176 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 64 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 120 | 0 | 1 | 1648 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 152 | 1 | 2 | 1448 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 334 | 1 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 126 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 265 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 238 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1879 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 238 | 1 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 80 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1661 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredy Guarín Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €18.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Benjamin Bourigeaud Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Luis Alberto Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €28.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Antonín Barák Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €20.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Kevin Strootman Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Téji Savanier Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €9.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Teddy Teuma Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €7.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Yohan Cabaye Premier League · 2017 | 31 | €15.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2024 | Leverkusen | Mainz | €1.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Genoa | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Leverkusen | Genoa | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 30 Jul 2019 | Hoffenheim | Leverkusen | €10.5M | €17.0M |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | W. Mannheim U17 | Hoffenheim U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Mannheim Yth. | W. Mannheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | K'lautern Yth. | Mannheim Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Ludw. SC Yth. | K'lautern Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.