Dmitriy Chistyakov

32 yrs · Centre-back · Russia
FK Rostov · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€750k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€199k – €552k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€280k – €596k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€236k – €563k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€272k – €397k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€199k – €552k
Model value (performance-implied)€280k – €596k
Projected value (24 months)€236k – €563k
Dashed line: current market value (€750k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dmitriy Chistyakov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 41

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €265k vs market €750k
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1862 (69% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
31 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1301
Opponent strength
1348
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€236k – €563k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -53% to -40%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK RostovPremier LigaCB22186269%000.000.03134813010.56
2023/24FK SochiPremier LigaCB628911%000.000.06132912220.49
2023/24AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB51455%000.000.03124914910.49
2022/23AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB1589233%000.000.02132515820.53
2021/22AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB27202175%110.090.06133915300.52
2020/21AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB1483131%020.220.09130415440.55
2020/21FK RostovPremier LigaCB2903%000.000.06133113160.55
2019/20FK RostovPremier LigaCB22175765%100.050.06140113740.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Rostov636010—
2024/25Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg850410—
2023/24Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg218000—
2023/24Russian CupFK Sochi19000—
2023/24Russian Super CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg190001447
2022/23Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg762200—
2022/23Russian Super CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg190001359
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg5444001651
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg2178001596
2021/22Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg216200—
2021/22Russian Super CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg190001457
2019/20Russian CupFK Rostov19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Joël Sami
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
32€800k€400kfell
Álvaro Mejía
Super League 1 · 2014
32€500k€300kfell
Georgios Zisopoulos
Super League 1 · 2016
32€500k€250kfell
Marco Baixinho
Liga Portugal · 2021
32€500k€300kfell
Marco Zoro
Super League 1 · 2014
31€500k€500kflat
Tomas Sivok
Super Lig · 2017
34€1.0M€250kfell
Zoran Nizic
Premier Liga · 2022
33€750k€300kfell
Marat Bystrov
Premier Liga · 2023
31€1.0M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Zenit S-PbRostovFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2024FK SochiZenit S-PbFree / loan€1.8M
14 Jan 2024Zenit S-PbFK SochiFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2021RostovZenit S-Pb€3.3M€2.8M
30 Jun 2021Zenit S-PbRostovFree / loan€2.8M
15 Oct 2020RostovZenit S-PbFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2019TambovRostov€125k€800k
31 Aug 2018Shinnik YaroslavTambovFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2016Zenit 2 S-PbShinnik YaroslavUnknown€150k
30 Jun 2016MIKA AshtarakZenit 2 S-PbFree / loan€125k
31 Aug 2015Zenit 2 S-PbMIKA AshtarakFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2013Zenit IIZenit 2 S-PbUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2012Rostov IIZenit IIFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2012SShOR Zenit U17Rostov IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.