
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dmitriy Chistyakov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €265k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1862 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1348
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €236k – €563k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -53% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1862 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1348 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 289 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1329 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 5 | 145 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1249 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 892 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1325 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2021 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1339 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 831 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 1304 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 2 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1331 | 1316 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1757 | 65% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1401 | 1374 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 6 | 360 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 504 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 622 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 444 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Sami Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 32 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Álvaro Mejía Super League 1 · 2014 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Zisopoulos Super League 1 · 2016 | 32 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Marco Baixinho Liga Portugal · 2021 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Marco Zoro Super League 1 · 2014 | 31 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Tomas Sivok Super Lig · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Zoran Nizic Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Marat Bystrov Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | Rostov | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rostov | Zenit S-Pb | €3.3M | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Zenit S-Pb | Rostov | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 15 Oct 2020 | Rostov | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Tambov | Rostov | €125k | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Shinnik Yaroslav | Tambov | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Shinnik Yaroslav | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | MIKA Ashtarak | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Free / loan | €125k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | MIKA Ashtarak | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rostov II | Zenit II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | SShOR Zenit U17 | Rostov II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.