
Mark O'Hara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mark O'Hara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1304 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €260k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1304 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €154k – €493k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; team strength down (-75 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -35% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1304 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 18 | 1304 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 1250 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 2324 | 78% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1245 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 23 | 1869 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 1273 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 30 | 2449 | 82% | 10 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 1309 | 1217 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 15 | 1100 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 1325 | 1243 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 23 | 1849 | 62% | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1324 | 1249 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 17 | 889 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1207 | 1296 | 0.52 |
| 2017/18 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 29 | 2183 | 74% | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1305 | 1160 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 28 | 2282 | 67% | 5 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.26 | 1298 | 1175 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 29 | 2163 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1270 | 1155 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 18 | 1283 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1292 | 1152 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 14 | 1066 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1339 | 1193 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 16 | 1230 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1325 | 1282 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 1256 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Motherwell FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1319 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 3 | 245 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Peterborough United | 4 | 231 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Callachan Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Andriy Kukharuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Aias Aosman Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Fabrício Baiano Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Dmitriy Nagiyev Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Rogério Martins Super League 1 · 2015 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Jon Toral Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Mykhaylo Shyshka Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Motherwell FC | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Peterborough | Motherwell FC | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 May 2020 | Motherwell FC | Peterborough | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Peterborough | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 May 2019 | Lincoln City | Peterborough | Free / loan | €450k |
| 24 Jan 2019 | Peterborough | Lincoln City | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dundee FC | Peterborough | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Kilmarnock FC | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Kilmarnock FC U20 | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Kilmarnock FC U17 | Kilmarnock FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.