Mark O'Hara

30 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CB, CM, RB) · Scotland
St. Mirren FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€500k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€117k – €521k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€274k – €361k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€154k – €493k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€247k – €244k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€117k – €521k
Model value (performance-implied)€274k – €361k
Projected value (24 months)€154k – €493k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mark O'Hara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1304 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 84

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average6.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €260k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1304 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
7 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1102
Opponent strength
1250
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€154k – €493k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; team strength down (-75 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -35% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1304 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipCM18130444%010.070.21125011020.31
2024/25St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipCM28232478%320.190.21124511770.34
2023/24St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipCM23186963%410.240.23127311920.34
2022/23St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipDM30244982%1020.440.32130912170.40
2021/22Motherwell FCScottish PremiershipCM15110037%100.080.18132512430.50
2020/21Motherwell FCScottish PremiershipDM23184962%410.240.24132412490.54
2019/20Motherwell FCScottish PremiershipDM1788933%110.200.12120712960.52
2017/18Dundee FCScottish PremiershipDM29218374%400.160.16130511600.47
2016/17Dundee FCScottish PremiershipDM28228267%560.430.26129811750.48
2015/16Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipRB29216363%000.000.03127011550.44
2014/15Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipDM18128338%010.070.11129211520.41
2013/14Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB14106631%000.000.03133911930.44
2012/13Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipDM16123036%100.070.09132512820.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC221000—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingSt. Mirren FC2180111256
2024/25Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC218000—
2022/23Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC221010—
2021/22Scottish Fa CupMotherwell FC19000—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingMotherwell FC3300001319
2020/21Scottish Fa CupMotherwell FC212200—
2019/20Scottish Fa CupMotherwell FC324510—
2018/19Fa CupPeterborough United423100—
2017/18Scottish Fa CupDundee FC327010—
2016/17Scottish Fa CupDundee FC19000—
2015/16Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC12500—
2013/14Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC14500—
2012/13Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC210100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ross Callachan
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€400k€150kfell
Andriy Kukharuk
Premier Liga · 2024
29€300k€300kflat
Aias Aosman
Super League 1 · 2023
29€600k€250kfell
Fabrício Baiano
Super Lig · 2021
29€600k€450kfell
Dmitriy Nagiyev
Premier Liga · 2024
29€250k€250kflat
Rogério Martins
Super League 1 · 2015
31€400k€300kfell
Jon Toral
Super League 1 · 2024
29€700k€700kflat
Mykhaylo Shyshka
Premier Liga · 2023
29€200k€200kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Motherwell FCSt. MirrenFree / loan€450k
1 Jul 2020PeterboroughMotherwell FCUnknown€300k
31 May 2020Motherwell FCPeterboroughFree / loan€300k
2 Sept 2019PeterboroughMotherwell FCFree / loan€450k
31 May 2019Lincoln CityPeterboroughFree / loan€450k
24 Jan 2019PeterboroughLincoln CityFree / loan€450k
1 Jul 2018Dundee FCPeterboroughUnknown€450k
1 Jul 2016Kilmarnock FCDundee FCFree / loan€250k
1 Jan 2013Kilmarnock FC U20Kilmarnock FCUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Kilmarnock FC U17Kilmarnock FC U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.