
Alessandro Deiola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alessandro Deiola's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1435 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €815k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1435 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €432k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -67% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1435 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 20 | 1435 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 1515 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1429 | 42% | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1536 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 27 | 1608 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1462 | 1349 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2144 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 1496 | 1310 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 12 | 616 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1472 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CM | 12 | 357 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1503 | 1363 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | US Lecce | Serie A | DM | 10 | 718 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 1470 | 1277 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1531 | 1368 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CM | 10 | 541 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 1507 | 1294 | 0.78 |
| 2018/19 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 10 | 447 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1510 | 1310 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 13 | 444 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1607 | 1323 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 5 | 245 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1472 | 1369 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 162 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianni Munari Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Álex Fernández Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Daniele Dessena Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Mounir Obbadi Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Romain Philippoteaux Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Thiago Xavier Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Artur Liga Portugal · 2013 | 29 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Wesley Lautoa Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2021 | Spezia Calcio | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Cagliari | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Lecce | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Cagliari | Lecce | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Parma | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 17 Aug 2018 | Cagliari | Parma | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Spezia Calcio | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Cagliari | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Tuttocuoio | Cagliari | Free / loan | €175k |
| 23 Aug 2014 | Cagliari | Tuttocuoio | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Cagliari U19 | Cagliari | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Cagliari Youth | Cagliari U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.