Alessandro Deiola

31 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Italy
Cagliari Calcio · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€464k – €1.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€979k – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€432k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€529k – €3.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€464k – €1.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€979k – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€432k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alessandro Deiola's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1435 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 68

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average58.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €815k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1435 (42% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1376
Opponent strength
1515
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€432k – €1.3M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -67% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1435 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM20143542%020.130.21151513760.93
2024/25Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM29142942%210.190.29153613680.99
2023/24Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM27160847%100.060.16146213490.98
2021/22Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM33214463%410.210.25149613100.89
2020/21Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM1261618%000.000.14147213730.90
2020/21Spezia CalcioSerie ACM1235710%000.000.19150313630.90
2019/20US LecceSerie ADM1071821%110.250.21147012770.82
2019/20Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM110%000.000.24153113680.82
2018/19Parma Calcio 1913Serie ACM1054116%010.170.30150712940.78
2018/19Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM1044713%000.000.22151013100.78
2017/18Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM1344413%000.000.27160713230.86
2016/17Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM52457%000.000.20147213690.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio322000—
2024/25Italy CupCagliari Calcio314100—
2023/24Italy CupCagliari Calcio316700—
2021/22Italy CupCagliari Calcio216220—
2020/21Italy CupSpezia Calcio326600—
2019/20Italy CupCagliari Calcio19000—
2017/18Italy CupCagliari Calcio11600—
2016/17Italy CupSpezia Calcio221000—
2016/17Italy CupCagliari Calcio1700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gianni Munari
Serie A · 2013
30€1.0M€300kfell
Álex Fernández
Laliga · 2024
32€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Daniele Dessena
Serie A · 2017
30€1.5M€500kfell
Mounir Obbadi
Ligue 1 · 2013
30€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Romain Philippoteaux
Ligue 1 · 2017
29€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Thiago Xavier
Ligue 1 · 2013
30€800k€250kfell
Artur
Liga Portugal · 2013
29€1.0M€700kfell
Wesley Lautoa
Ligue 1 · 2017
30€2.0M€2.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Jan 2021Spezia CalcioCagliariFree / loan€1.0M
22 Sept 2020CagliariSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.0M
31 Aug 2020LecceCagliariFree / loan€1.0M
10 Jan 2020CagliariLecceFree / loan€1.2M
22 Jan 2019ParmaCagliariFree / loan€1.2M
17 Aug 2018CagliariParmaFree / loan€1.3M
31 Jan 2017Spezia CalcioCagliariFree / loan€1.5M
31 Aug 2016CagliariSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.6M
30 Jun 2015TuttocuoioCagliariFree / loan€175k
23 Aug 2014CagliariTuttocuoioFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2014Cagliari U19CagliariUnknown€75k
1 Jul 2012Cagliari YouthCagliari U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.