Adam Dzwigala
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Dzwigala's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €304k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1295 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €319k – €765k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -60% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1295 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1295 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1476 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 363 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1527 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2019/20 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | CB | 16 | 1313 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1366 | 1136 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 49 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Imorou Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Mickaël Alphonse Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €725k | €300k | fell |
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2022 | 34 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Sebastien De Maio Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €1.4M | €725k | fell |
| Rovérsio Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Pavle Ninkov Ligue 1 · 2015 | 30 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Jawad El Yamiq Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2020 | Without Club | St. Pauli | Unknown | €400k |
| 8 Aug 2020 | Desportivo Aves | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Wisla Plock | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lechia Gdansk | Wisla Plock | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Gornik Leczna | Lechia Gdansk | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Lechia Gdansk | Gornik Leczna | Free / loan | €150k |
| 15 Jan 2016 | Górnik Zabrze | Lechia Gdansk | Free / loan | €175k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Lechia Gdansk | Górnik Zabrze | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Jagiellonia | Lechia Gdansk | €250k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Jagiellonia II | Jagiellonia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Mazur Karczew | Jagiellonia II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.