Breel Embolo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Breel Embolo's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-14.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-17.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-10.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1873 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1873 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1470
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -64% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 31 | 1873 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 1470 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 1844 | 60% | 6 | 5 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 1447 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 5 | 182 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1457 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 1854 | 54% | 12 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 1418 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 2145 | 70% | 9 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 1541 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 1434 | 47% | 5 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.49 | 1552 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 1552 | 51% | 8 | 8 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 1538 | 1604 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | ST | 20 | 1350 | 44% | 5 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 1532 | 1482 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 913 | 30% | 3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1540 | 1618 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | ST | 7 | 341 | 11% | 2 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 1533 | 1556 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 264 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 10 | 750 | 1 | 3 | 1661 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 8 | 290 | 2 | 2 | 1482 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 118 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 301 | 1 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 306 | 0 | 0 | 1469 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 385 | 1 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1517 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Pandev Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Samedov Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Lisandro López Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €8.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Daniel Osvaldo Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €17.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Chicharito Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Dame N'Doye Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nikola Kalinic Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €14.0M | €6.8M | fell |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €20.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Monaco | Stade Rennais | €13.0M | €12.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Mönchengladbach | Monaco | €12.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | Mönchengladbach | €11.0M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Basel | FC Schalke 04 | €26.5M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Basel U21 | Basel | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | FC Basel U18 | FC Basel U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Basel U16 | FC Basel U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Basel Yth. | FC Basel U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Old Boys Youth | FC Basel Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Nordstern Jgd. | Old Boys Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.