Laurent Abergel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Laurent Abergel's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (2325 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2325 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1470
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €394k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -75% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | DM | 28 | 2325 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1470 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | DM | 33 | 2862 | 94% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1475 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | DM | 29 | 2350 | 69% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1452 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 2964 | 87% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1438 | 1335 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | DM | 38 | 2967 | 87% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1437 | 1344 | 0.75 |
| 2013/14 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1403 | 1471 | 0.79 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomás Rincón Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Jaroslav Plasil Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cheikh N'Doye Ligue 1 · 2019 | 33 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Yuriy Zhirkov Premier Liga · 2016 | 33 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Mariano Izco Serie A · 2015 | 32 | €2.6M | €500k | fell |
| Yannick Cahuzac Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Marco Marchionni Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Édgar Barreto Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2019 | AS Nancy | FC Lorient | €500k | €800k |
| 6 Jul 2017 | AC Ajaccio | AS Nancy | €600k | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2015 | Marseille | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | AC Ajaccio | Marseille | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Marseille | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Marseille B | Marseille | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Marseille U19 | Marseille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.