Aiyegun Tosin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aiyegun Tosin's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (1068 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €813k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1068 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1453
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €730k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -46% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1068 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1068 | 35% | 5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 1453 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 19 | 901 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 1470 | 1335 | 0.87 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barreto Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €1.9M | €200k | fell |
| Sebastián Leto Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Romain Philippoteaux Ligue 1 · 2015 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Maor Melikson Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Komnen Andric Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Antonino Ragusa Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sergey Tkachev Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Amath Ndiaye Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2023 | FC Zürich | FC Lorient | €4.0M | €3.2M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | JFK Ventspils | FC Zürich | €450k | €250k |
| 3 Mar 2017 | Real Sapphire | JFK Ventspils | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.