Adam Marusic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Marusic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 86th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2783 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €685k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -81% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RB | 33 | 2783 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1493 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RB | 35 | 2333 | 68% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1509 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LB | 37 | 3107 | 91% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1483 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LB | 33 | 2766 | 81% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1479 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LB | 33 | 2722 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1468 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LM | 36 | 2971 | 87% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1458 | 1548 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RM | 15 | 939 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1407 | 1557 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RM | 26 | 2113 | 62% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1450 | 1467 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RM | 32 | 2526 | 74% | 3 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1477 | 1597 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | KV Oostende | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 26 | 2187 | 81% | 3 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1343 | 1402 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 29 | 2337 | 87% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1346 | 1346 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 25 | 1914 | 71% | 5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 1317 | 1380 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 337 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 12 | 1001 | 0 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 514 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 295 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 338 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 440 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1693 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 293 | 1 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 288 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 309 | 0 | 1 | 1434 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1814 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emir Spahic Laliga · 2013 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Federico Peluso Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €1.7M | €800k | fell |
| Dante Ligue 1 · 2017 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2021 | 35 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Germán Pezzella Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Luca Rossettini Serie A · 2017 | 32 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Wederson Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Loïc Perrin Ligue 1 · 2018 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2017 | KV Oostende | Lazio | €5.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | KV Kortrijk | KV Oostende | €2.0M | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vozdovac | KV Kortrijk | €450k | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Vozdovac U19 | Vozdovac | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.