Denis Vavro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denis Vavro's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1175 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1522
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 52 pts; team strength down (-62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -70% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1175 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 1175 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1522 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2462 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1492 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 5 | 294 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1244 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1454 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1297 | 1517 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 5 | 450 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 1274 | 1516 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1252 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | SD Huesca | Laliga | CB | 11 | 616 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1518 | 1418 | 1.10 |
| 2020/21 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 1 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1368 | 1548 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 11 | 318 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1396 | 1557 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 25 | 2089 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1300 | 1499 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1506 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1261 | 1453 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1310 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 300 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 708 | 0 | 0 | 1734 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 505 | 1 | 1 | 1461 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 517 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 660 | 3 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1489 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | MSK Zilina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas N'Koulou Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Craig Cathcart Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ron Vlaar Premier League · 2015 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Erik Pieters Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Christopher Jullien Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Peter Pekarík Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Nicolás Spolli Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Petar Stojanović Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €2.3M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Copenhagen | Wolfsburg | €2.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Wolfsburg | Copenhagen | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Copenhagen | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Lazio | Copenhagen | €4.5M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Copenhagen | Lazio | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 24 Jan 2022 | Lazio | Copenhagen | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SD Huesca | Lazio | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Lazio | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Copenhagen | Lazio | €10.5M | €6.0M |
| 26 Aug 2017 | MSK Zilina | Copenhagen | €1.4M | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | MSK Zilina U19 | MSK Zilina | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.