
Reinildo Mandava
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Reinildo Mandava's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1969 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1616
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength down (-159 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output up 174% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -57%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LB | 25 | 1969 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 1616 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 19 | 935 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1557 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 16 | 723 | 21% | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 1473 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 22 | 1861 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1516 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 1530 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1398 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 17 | 1298 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1503 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 29 | 2182 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1455 | 1610 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 16 | 1108 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1487 | 1516 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | LB | 16 | 1221 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1342 | 1313 | 0.65 |
| 2018/19 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 3 | 95 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1487 | 1543 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Mozambique | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 366 | 0 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 194 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1837 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 512 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 343 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 456 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1787 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | LOSC Lille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 224 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciaran Clark Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Héctor Moreno Laliga · 2019 | 31 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Erik Pieters Premier League · 2020 | 32 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Serge Aurier Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €8.0M | €3.7M | fell |
| Jakub Blaszczykowski Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iván Ramis Laliga · 2016 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Glen Johnson Premier League · 2016 | 32 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Zouhair Feddal Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Atlético | Sunderland | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Lille | Atlético | €3.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | B SAD | Lille | €3.0M | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Lille | B SAD | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | B SAD | Lille | Free / loan | €600k |
| 8 Jul 2018 | Benfica B | B SAD | Unknown | €425k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | SC Covilhã | Benfica B | Free / loan | €425k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica B | SC Covilhã | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Fafe | Benfica B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Jan 2017 | Benfica B | Fafe | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | LD Maputo | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ferr. Beira | LD Maputo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.