Reinildo Mandava

32 yrs · Left-back · Mozambique
Sunderland AFC · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.1M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.8M – €5.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.0M – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€453k – €3.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.1M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.8M – €5.0M
Projected value (24 months)€1.0M – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Reinildo Mandava's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 15

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.5M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-64% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1969 (58% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1496
Opponent strength
1616
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.0M – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength down (-159 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output up 174% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -57%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sunderland AFCPremier LeagueLB25196958%020.090.18161614961.30
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaLB1993527%000.000.06155716550.95
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaLB1672321%210.370.16147316671.00
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaLB22186154%000.000.04151616560.98
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1LB18153045%100.060.06139815400.86
2021/22Atlético de MadridLaligaLB17129838%000.000.04150316771.05
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1LB29218264%000.000.03145516100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1LB16110844%000.000.07148715160.82
2018/19B SADLiga PortugalLB16122140%000.000.05134213130.65
2018/19LOSC LilleLigue 1LB3953%000.000.12148715430.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsMozambique327000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6366001715
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid419400—
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid28200—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid122001837
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6512001602
2022/23Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid534300—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille6456001636
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4360001787
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille190001727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille6224001634
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille2180001760

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ciaran Clark
Premier League · 2021
32€3.0M€600kfell
Héctor Moreno
Laliga · 2019
31€6.0M€2.5Mfell
Erik Pieters
Premier League · 2020
32€4.0M€900kfell
Serge Aurier
Premier League · 2023
31€8.0M€3.7Mfell
Jakub Blaszczykowski
Bundesliga · 2017
32€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Iván Ramis
Laliga · 2016
32€1.5M€500kfell
Glen Johnson
Premier League · 2016
32€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Zouhair Feddal
Laliga · 2019
30€5.0M€6.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Jul 2025AtléticoSunderlandFree / loan€5.0M
31 Jan 2022LilleAtlético€3.0M€10.0M
1 Jul 2019B SADLille€3.0M€600k
30 Jun 2019LilleB SADFree / loan€600k
31 Jan 2019B SADLilleFree / loan€600k
8 Jul 2018Benfica BB SADUnknown€425k
30 Jun 2018SC CovilhãBenfica BFree / loan€425k
1 Jul 2017Benfica BSC CovilhãFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2017FafeBenfica BFree / loan€200k
5 Jan 2017Benfica BFafeFree / loan€150k
1 Jan 2016LD MaputoBenfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Ferr. BeiraLD MaputoUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.