Arturo Calabresi

30 yrs · Centre-back (also RB) · Italy
Pisa Sporting Club · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€236k – €635k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€257k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€344k – €727k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€378k – €1.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€236k – €635k
Model value (performance-implied)€257k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€344k – €727k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Arturo Calabresi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 77

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage42.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €314k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1519 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
43 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1260
Opponent strength
1513
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€344k – €727k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -62% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1519 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Pisa Sporting ClubSerie ACB26151944%010.060.09151312600.93
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ARB1191%000.000.12138213800.90
2020/21Cagliari CalcioSerie ARB2120%000.000.18157313730.90
2019/20Amiens SCLigue 1RB21187975%110.100.17145013140.82
2018/19Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACB18141541%100.060.10147813670.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupPisa Sporting Club18900—
2022/23Italy CupUS Lecce12900—
2020/21Italy CupBologna Football Club 19091100—
2018/19Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909327000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alessandro Tuia
Serie A · 2021
31€800k€400kfell
Alex Ferrari
Serie A · 2023
29€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Sandro
Liga Portugal · 2013
31€500k€500kflat
Andrea Coda
Serie A · 2014
29€600k€200kfell
Enrico Valentini
Bundesliga · 2019
30€1.5M€350kfell
Guido Milán
Ligue 1 · 2017
30€1.3M€500kfell
Luca Ceppitelli
Serie A · 2022
33€800k€600kfell
Matteo Ciofani
Serie A · 2016
28€600k€1.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Aug 2022LeccePisaUnknown€1.5M
29 Jul 2021BolognaLecce€1.5M€1.5M
30 Jun 2021CagliariBolognaFree / loan€1.5M
22 Jan 2021BolognaCagliariFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2020Amiens SCBolognaFree / loan€2.2M
26 Aug 2019BolognaAmiens SCFree / loan€1.8M
1 Jul 2018RomaBologna€200k€700k
30 Jun 2018FoggiaRomaFree / loan€700k
23 Jan 2018RomaFoggiaFree / loan€600k
22 Jan 2018Spezia CalcioRomaFree / loan€600k
7 Jul 2017RomaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2017BresciaRomaFree / loan€700k
15 Jan 2016RomaBresciaFree / loan€300k
5 Jan 2016AS LivornoRomaFree / loan€300k
12 Jul 2015Roma U19AS LivornoFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2012AS Rom YouthRoma U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.