
Arturo Calabresi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arturo Calabresi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €314k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1519 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €344k – €727k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -62% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1519 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | CB | 26 | 1519 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1513 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 1 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1382 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 2 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1573 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Amiens SC | Ligue 1 | RB | 21 | 1879 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1450 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CB | 18 | 1415 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1478 | 1367 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Tuia Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Alex Ferrari Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Sandro Liga Portugal · 2013 | 31 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Andrea Coda Serie A · 2014 | 29 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Enrico Valentini Bundesliga · 2019 | 30 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| Guido Milán Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2022 | 33 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Matteo Ciofani Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2022 | Lecce | Pisa | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Bologna | Lecce | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cagliari | Bologna | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Bologna | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Amiens SC | Bologna | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Bologna | Amiens SC | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Roma | Bologna | €200k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Foggia | Roma | Free / loan | €700k |
| 23 Jan 2018 | Roma | Foggia | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Jan 2018 | Spezia Calcio | Roma | Free / loan | €600k |
| 7 Jul 2017 | Roma | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Brescia | Roma | Free / loan | €700k |
| 15 Jan 2016 | Roma | Brescia | Free / loan | €300k |
| 5 Jan 2016 | AS Livorno | Roma | Free / loan | €300k |
| 12 Jul 2015 | Roma U19 | AS Livorno | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AS Rom Youth | Roma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.