
Matías Kranevitter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matías Kranevitter's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1779 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 14.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €195k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1779 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 17)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €191k – €517k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -64% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1779 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | DM | 23 | 1779 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1249 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2019/20 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | DM | 2 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1377 | 1594 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | DM | 6 | 194 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1387 | 1533 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1311 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1391 | 1581 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | DM | 21 | 1283 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1523 | 1624 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 8 | 327 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1508 | 1829 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 151 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 683 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 4 | 301 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 4 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2016/17 | Supercopa | Sevilla FC | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Super Cup | Sevilla FC | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1903 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Iglesias Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Gabriel Obertan Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Graham Carey Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 34 | €450k | €75k | fell |
| Erik Sabo Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €725k | €600k | flat |
| Jacob Schoop Superliga · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Jean Barrientos Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €950k | €300k | fell |
| Juan Domínguez Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sept 2025 | River Plate | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Monterrey | River Plate | €1.7M | €3.0M |
| 24 Jan 2020 | Zenit S-Pb | Monterrey | €2.6M | €2.8M |
| 8 Aug 2017 | Atlético | Zenit S-Pb | €8.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Sevilla FC | Atlético | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 7 Jul 2016 | Atlético | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Dec 2015 | River Plate | Atlético | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Aug 2015 | Atlético | River Plate | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 29 Aug 2015 | River Plate | Atlético | €6.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | River Plate II | River Plate | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.