Matías Kranevitter

33 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Argentina
Racing Club Asociación Civil de Avellaneda · Torneo Apertura · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€600k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€146k – €440k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€140k – €400k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€191k – €517k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€300k – €254k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€146k – €440k
Model value (performance-implied)€140k – €400k
Projected value (24 months)€191k – €517k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Matías Kranevitter's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1779 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average14.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €195k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1779 (58% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
15 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 17)
Team strength (Elo)
1169
Opponent strength
1249
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€191k – €517k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -64% to -39%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1779 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigDM23177958%100.050.13124911690.40
2019/20AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaDM2281%000.000.07137715940.63
2018/19AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaDM61947%000.000.06138715330.69
2017/18AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaDM21131149%010.070.05139115810.75
2016/17Sevilla FCLaligaDM21128338%000.000.03152316241.11
2015/16Atlético de MadridLaligaDM832710%000.000.04150818291.17

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2019/20Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg218000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg4315001439
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg3155001457
2018/19Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg215102—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg10683001530
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg2114001445
2016/17Copa Del ReySevilla FC430101—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueSevilla FC4183001638
2016/17SupercopaSevilla FC2159001885
2016/17Uefa Super CupSevilla FC146001903
2015/16Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid216300—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid145001633

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Matias Iglesias
Super League 1 · 2017
32€500k€200kfell
Gabriel Obertan
Super Lig · 2021
32€400k€150kfell
Graham Carey
Scottish Premiership · 2023
34€450k€75kfell
Erik Sabo
Super Lig · 2022
31€725k€600kflat
Jacob Schoop
Superliga · 2021
33€250k€150kfell
Jean Barrientos
Super League 1 · 2023
33€400k€200kfell
Mitchell Donald
Super Lig · 2020
32€950k€300kfell
Juan Domínguez
Super League 1 · 2021
31€400k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Sept 2025River PlateKaragümrükFree / loan€800k
1 Jan 2023MonterreyRiver Plate€1.7M€3.0M
24 Jan 2020Zenit S-PbMonterrey€2.6M€2.8M
8 Aug 2017AtléticoZenit S-Pb€8.5M€6.0M
30 Jun 2017Sevilla FCAtléticoFree / loan€6.0M
7 Jul 2016AtléticoSevilla FCFree / loan€6.0M
31 Dec 2015River PlateAtléticoFree / loan€7.0M
30 Aug 2015AtléticoRiver PlateFree / loan€7.0M
29 Aug 2015River PlateAtlético€6.0M€7.0M
1 Jul 2012River Plate IIRiver PlateUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011River Plate U20River Plate IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.