Federico Bonazzoli

29 yrs · Striker · Italy
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
34/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €9.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €3.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€782k – €8.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €9.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Federico Bonazzoli's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-9.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.35x the positional average in the league (2524 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 34

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average58.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.1M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2524 (74% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.69
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
58 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1299
Opponent strength
1505
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €3.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -46% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie AST35252474%1020.430.69150512990.93
2023/24Hellas VeronaSerie AST24101430%310.360.63149213810.98
2022/23US Salernitana 1919Serie AST24111633%220.320.58145613790.94
2021/22US Salernitana 1919Serie AST32186555%1000.480.72147612830.89
2020/21Torino FCSerie AST2055116%220.650.60143313730.90
2020/21UC SampdoriaSerie AST21334%010.680.57144414400.90
2019/20UC SampdoriaSerie AST1974122%600.730.59137413740.82
2017/18SPALSerie AST111705%000.000.65148513420.86
2017/18UC SampdoriaSerie AST1271%000.000.56144213930.86
2015/16UC SampdoriaSerie AST4692%000.000.53146114120.95
2014/15Inter MilanSerie AST4451%000.000.42147015330.93
2013/14Inter MilanSerie AST150%000.000.39135915040.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Cremonese15900—
2022/23Italy CupUS Salernitana 191913000—
2021/22Italy CupUS Salernitana 191918220—
2020/21Italy CupTorino FC221010—
2018/19Italy CupCalcio Padova27100—
2015/16Italy CupUC Sampdoria15900—
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingUC Sampdoria232001528
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueInter Milan2156001490
2014/15Italy CupInter Milan11100—
2013/14Italy CupInter Milan1700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Federico Dionisi
Serie A · 2016
29€3.0M€1.9Mfell
Yannick Boli
Premier Liga · 2016
28€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Kai Pröger
Bundesliga · 2020
28€1.4M€700kfell
Camillo Ciano
Serie A · 2019
29€3.0M€650kfell
Pablo Chavarría
Ligue 1 · 2015
27€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Vladislav Ignatjev
Premier Liga · 2016
29€3.5M€3.0Mflat
Danilo Neco
Premier Liga · 2013
27€1.5M€900kfell
Mustapha Yatabaré
Ligue 1 · 2014
28€2.3M€2.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Aug 2024SalernitanaCremonese€1.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2024Hellas VeronaSalernitanaFree / loan€2.5M
10 Aug 2023SalernitanaHellas VeronaFree / loan€4.0M
26 Jul 2022SampdoriaSalernitana€5.0M€5.0M
30 Jun 2022SalernitanaSampdoriaFree / loan€5.0M
3 Aug 2021SampdoriaSalernitanaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021TorinoSampdoriaFree / loan€4.0M
5 Oct 2020SampdoriaTorinoFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2019PadovaSampdoriaFree / loan€1.5M
14 Jul 2018SampdoriaPadovaFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2018SPALSampdoriaFree / loan€1.5M
22 Aug 2017SampdoriaSPALFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2017BresciaSampdoriaFree / loan€2.0M
22 Jul 2016SampdoriaBresciaFree / loan€2.8M
30 Jun 2016Virtus LancianoSampdoriaFree / loan€2.8M
21 Jan 2016SampdoriaVirtus LancianoFree / loan€3.2M
30 Jun 2015InterSampdoriaFree / loan€2.5M
2 Feb 2015SampdoriaInterFree / loan€2.5M
1 Feb 2015InterSampdoria€4.6M€2.5M
1 Sept 2014Inter U19InterUnknown€900k
1 Jul 2013Inter YouthInter U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Federico Bonazzoli · MoneyballAI