Paschalis Staikos

30 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Greece
Athlitiki Enosi Larisas · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€350k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€75k – €297k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€226k – €366k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€141k – €326k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€71k – €292k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€75k – €297k
Model value (performance-implied)€226k – €366k
Projected value (24 months)€141k – €326k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Paschalis Staikos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.91x the positional average in the league (586 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average3.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €99k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €400k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
586 (25% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.24
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1129
Opponent strength
1282
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€141k – €326k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 46 pts; changed club; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 300% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -35% to -25%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 586 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
14 (MID)
Relative output kept
67%–189%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
64%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athlitiki Enosi LarisasSuper League 1DM1158625%010.150.24128211290.43
2024/25Panserraikos SerresSuper League 1DM22166971%000.000.06126711410.35
2023/24Panserraikos SerresSuper League 1DM24187780%310.190.23124711890.42
2022/23Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FCSuper League 1DM1025011%000.000.14123011700.37
2021/22Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FCSuper League 1DM91677%000.000.18130211990.39
2020/21Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FCSuper League 1DM22154566%300.170.19126611130.39
2019/20Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FCSuper League 1DM1679734%000.000.08129212250.46
2018/19Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1DM1154520%000.000.06118913060.43
2017/18Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1DM71144%000.000.09122213490.48
2016/17Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1DM1181%000.000.09120514060.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Larisas428501—
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanserraikos Serres16300—
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanserraikos Serres38400—
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanserraikos Serres16100—
2021/22Kypello ElladasOmilos Filathlon Irakliou FC12700—
2020/21Kypello ElladasOmilos Filathlon Irakliou FC214400—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingOmilos Filathlon Irakliou FC167001444
2019/20Kypello ElladasOmilos Filathlon Irakliou FC430001—
2018/19Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos327000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marcos Paulo
Super League 1 · 2019
31€450k€100kfell
Yuri Shturko
Premier Liga · 2015
31€600k€400kfell
Fatjon Andoni
Super League 1 · 2020
29€350k€300kflat
Danny Olsen
Superliga · 2017
32€300k€200kfell
Fanouris Goundoulakis
Super League 1 · 2015
32€350k€250kfell
Javier Mendoza
Super League 1 · 2023
31€400k€400kflat
Lossémy Karaboué
Super League 1 · 2017
29€500k€350kfell
Georgios Makris
Super League 1 · 2016
32€250k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025PanserraikosAE LarisaFree / loan€400k
16 Jan 2023OFI CretePanserraikosFree / loan€300k
31 Aug 2019PanathinaikosOFI CreteFree / loan€250k
13 Mar 2014PAO U20PanathinaikosUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Paschalis Staikos · MoneyballAI