Christian Burgess

35 yrs · Centre-back · England
Union Saint-Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€602k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€632k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€408k – €962k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €1.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€602k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€632k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€408k – €962k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Christian Burgess's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh79.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2337 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1570
Opponent strength
1372
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€408k – €962k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -66% to -54%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
76 (DEF)
Relative output kept
67%–160%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB26233787%240.230.12137215700.65
2024/25Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB21189070%020.100.07136915450.63
2023/24Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB28247592%100.040.04137915890.63
2022/23Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB31272589%300.100.06130015710.58
2021/22Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCB28245380%400.150.10133614990.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IUnion Saint-Gilloise9810001447
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise8720011677
2025/26Volkswagen SupercupUnion Saint-Gilloise190001552
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise9822001525
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise6540101593
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise2180001356
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise10855111587
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise2180001611

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jan Vertonghen
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
37€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Darijo Srna
Premier Liga · 2017
35€2.0M€800kfell
Dusko Tosic
Super Lig · 2018
33€2.0M€200kfell
Loïc Perrin
Ligue 1 · 2019
34€2.0M€1.2Mfell
João Pereira
Super Lig · 2018
34€1.0M€325kfell
Vladislav Ignatjev
Premier Liga · 2019
32€2.8M€1.0Mfell
Branislav Ivanovic
Premier Liga · 2020
36€1.2M€500kfell
Mariano
Super Lig · 2019
33€2.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Union SGWithout ClubUnknown€1.8M
7 Jul 2020PortsmouthUnion SGFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2015PeterboroughPortsmouthUnknown€200k
21 Aug 2014MiddlesbroughPeterboroughUnknown€50k
20 Aug 2014PeterboroughMiddlesbroughFree / loan€50k
19 Aug 2014MiddlesbroughPeterboroughFree / loan€50k
31 May 2014HartlepoolMiddlesbroughFree / loan€50k
29 Jul 2013MiddlesbroughHartlepoolFree / loanData unavailable
4 Jul 2012Bishop's St.MiddlesbroughFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.