
Christian Burgess
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Burgess's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 79.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2337 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €408k – €962k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -66% to -54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 26 | 2337 | 87% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 1372 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 21 | 1890 | 70% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1369 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 28 | 2475 | 92% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1379 | 1589 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 31 | 2725 | 89% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1300 | 1571 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 28 | 2453 | 80% | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1336 | 1499 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1677 |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 9 | 822 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1356 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 855 | 1 | 1 | 1587 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Vertonghen Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 37 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Darijo Srna Premier Liga · 2017 | 35 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Dusko Tosic Super Lig · 2018 | 33 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Loïc Perrin Ligue 1 · 2019 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| João Pereira Super Lig · 2018 | 34 | €1.0M | €325k | fell |
| Vladislav Ignatjev Premier Liga · 2019 | 32 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Branislav Ivanovic Premier Liga · 2020 | 36 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Mariano Super Lig · 2019 | 33 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Union SG | Without Club | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 7 Jul 2020 | Portsmouth | Union SG | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Peterborough | Portsmouth | Unknown | €200k |
| 21 Aug 2014 | Middlesbrough | Peterborough | Unknown | €50k |
| 20 Aug 2014 | Peterborough | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €50k |
| 19 Aug 2014 | Middlesbrough | Peterborough | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 May 2014 | Hartlepool | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €50k |
| 29 Jul 2013 | Middlesbrough | Hartlepool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jul 2012 | Bishop's St. | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.