Alen Ozbolt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alen Ozbolt's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.77x the positional average in the league (1376 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €451k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1376 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.92
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.90
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1279
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €329k – €629k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; team strength up (+133 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -39% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1376 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | ST | 20 | 1376 | 59% | 10 | 4 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1279 | 1260 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | ST | 20 | 791 | 34% | 2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 1289 | 1128 | 0.35 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 5 | 244 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 1 | 63 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fodé Koita Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €475k | €300k | fell |
| Lazar Markovic Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Ronald Vargas Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ilya Kukharchuk Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Michael Gardyne Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 29 | €250k | €400k | rose |
| Muhammet Demir Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ernest Asante Superliga · 2017 | 29 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| David Clarkson Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 30 | €350k | €225k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2024 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Levadiakos | Free / loan | €450k |
| 17 Jul 2022 | Slo. Bratislava | Hapoel Tel Aviv | €220k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Hapoel Haifa | Slo. Bratislava | Free / loan | €450k |
| 14 Jul 2021 | Slo. Bratislava | Hapoel Haifa | Free / loan | €350k |
| 11 Jan 2020 | Loko Plovdiv | Slo. Bratislava | €350k | €200k |
| 16 Sept 2018 | Without Club | Loko Plovdiv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 25 Aug 2018 | TSV Hartberg | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2018 | NK Domzale | TSV Hartberg | Unknown | €50k |
| 27 Jan 2017 | B. Dortmund II | NK Domzale | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | NK Domzale | B. Dortmund II | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | NK Domzale U19 | NK Domzale | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.