Takuma Asano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Takuma Asano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (659 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 44.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 659 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €394k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 659 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RW | 20 | 659 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 1476 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RW | 21 | 1059 | 31% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 1488 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | RW | 29 | 2003 | 65% | 6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 1508 | 1372 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | RW | 25 | 1728 | 56% | 3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1526 | 1409 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | RW | 27 | 1617 | 53% | 3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1534 | 1419 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | SS | 13 | 731 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1578 | 1326 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RW | 15 | 718 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 1486 | 1506 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 3 | 178 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 1 | 105 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 4 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 2 | 121 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 163 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilija Nestorovski Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Alfred Finnbogason Bundesliga · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Kalifa Coulibaly Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Denis Cheryshev Laliga · 2022 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Anthony Modeste Ligue 1 · 2021 | 33 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Nelson Valdez Bundesliga · 2015 | 32 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Mike Hanke Bundesliga · 2014 | 31 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Boško Janković Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2024 | VfL Bochum | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Partizan | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Arsenal | Partizan | €1.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Hannover 96 | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Arsenal | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Stuttgart | Arsenal | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 26 Aug 2016 | Arsenal | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 18 Jul 2016 | Sanf. Hiroshima | Arsenal | €4.0M | €1.2M |
| 1 Feb 2013 | Yokkaichi CT HS | Sanf. Hiroshima | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.