Christopher Martins
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christopher Martins's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.61x the positional average in the league (1122 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1122 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -70% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1122 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 27 | 1122 | 42% | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 1351 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 23 | 1484 | 55% | 3 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 1300 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1438 | 53% | 4 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 1358 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 18 | 1196 | 44% | 2 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 1321 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 10 | 811 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1370 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 2 | 69 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1506 | 1645 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 8 | 275 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 633 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 10 | 419 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 279 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | BSC Young Boys | 5 | 421 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | BSC Young Boys | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1474 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 353 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André André Liga Portugal · 2020 | 31 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lior Refaelov Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Mikel Agu Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €2.4M | €700k | fell |
| Mert Hakan Yandaş Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Claudemir Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Simen Juklerød Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
| Josip Radosevic Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Rodolph Austin Superliga · 2016 | 31 | €1.5M | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Young Boys | Spartak Moscow | €7.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Spartak Moscow | Young Boys | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Young Boys | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Lyon | Young Boys | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Troyes | Lyon | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 29 Aug 2018 | Lyon | Troyes | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Bourg-en-Bresse | Lyon | Free / loan | €400k |
| 13 Oct 2017 | Lyon | Bourg-en-Bresse | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | RFCU Luxembourg | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | RFCU Luxem. U17 | RFCU Luxembourg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.