Noah Sonko Sundberg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Sonko Sundberg's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €486k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 958 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1258
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €828k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength up (+72 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -35% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 958 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 12 | 958 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1258 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | CB | 26 | 2185 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1298 | 1183 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1291 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gastón Campi Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.2M | €375k | fell |
| Ramon Leeuwin Superliga · 2019 | 32 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Francis N'Ganga Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Jérémy Sapina Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Silvije Begic Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Murat Paluli Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Émerson Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Aris Saloniki | Ludogorets | Free / loan | €900k |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Ludogorets | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sivasspor | Ludogorets | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Ludogorets | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Levski Sofia | Ludogorets | €550k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Östersund | Levski Sofia | Free / loan | €500k |
| 8 Jan 2018 | AIK | Östersund | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Nov 2017 | GIF Sundsvall | AIK | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Mar 2017 | AIK | GIF Sundsvall | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Nov 2016 | GIF Sundsvall | AIK | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Mar 2016 | AIK | GIF Sundsvall | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | AIK U19 | AIK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.