Gautier Lloris
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gautier Lloris's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2400 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €885k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -50% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2400 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1464 | 1361 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2770 | 91% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1458 | 1333 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2780 | 91% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1491 | 1351 | 0.87 |
| 2019/20 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 3 | 270 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1487 | 1456 | 0.82 |
| 2015/16 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 2 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1375 | 1480 | 0.78 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Gagliolo Serie A · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €800k | fell |
| Romain Thomas Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Benoît Angbwa Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nicolas Pallois Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Stefan Mitrovic Ligue 1 · 2020 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.8M | flat |
| Bakaye Dibassy Ligue 1 · 2019 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vital Nsimba Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2022 | AJ Auxerre | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Nice | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €325k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | G. Ajaccio | Nice | Free / loan | €150k |
| 11 Jan 2018 | Nice | G. Ajaccio | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | OGC Nice B | Nice | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jul 2013 | Nizza U19 | OGC Nice B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | OGC Nice U17 | Nizza U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | OGCN Yth | OGC Nice U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.