Guillermo Maripán
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guillermo Maripán's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2145 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €531k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -69% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2145 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1484 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2341 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1497 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1768 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1499 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 2160 | 63% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1434 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 1829 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1401 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2087 | 61% | 5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 1418 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 20 | 1756 | 70% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1443 | 1426 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1495 | 1452 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 23 | 2008 | 59% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1526 | 1495 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1527 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1570 | 1501 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 5 | 385 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 414 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1566 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Caldirola Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Servet Cetin Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Alexis Ruano Laliga · 2016 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Lamine Koné Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.2M | €700k | fell |
| Mattia Bani Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ivan Ordets Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
| Jan Rajnoch Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Torino | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 29 Aug 2024 | Monaco | Torino | €4.6M | €10.0M |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Alavés | Monaco | €18.0M | €15.0M |
| 7 Jul 2017 | U. Católica | Alavés | €2.5M | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Catolica U21 | U. Católica | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.