Danny Bakker
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danny Bakker's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €234k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2636 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €244k – €397k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Telstar | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2636 | 86% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1316 | 1215 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | DM | 22 | 1491 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1420 | 1267 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | DM | 24 | 2053 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1356 | 1369 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | CM | 34 | 3055 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1328 | 1310 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | CM | 19 | 1616 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1358 | 1259 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 2770 | 91% | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1326 | 1329 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | CM | 20 | 1105 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1351 | 1266 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | DM | 23 | 1669 | 55% | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1356 | 1315 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | CB | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1485 | 1298 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Telstar | 4 | 303 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themistoklis Tzimopoulos Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Mads Lauritsen Superliga · 2022 | 29 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Anestis Anastasiadis Super League 1 · 2014 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Rodrigo Erramuspe Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Stergios Dimopoulos Super League 1 · 2020 | 30 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Savvas Tsabouris Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Xavier Tomas Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Kirill Gotsuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Telstar | Without Club | Unknown | €450k |
| 29 Sept 2023 | Without Club | Telstar | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | NAC Breda | Without Club | Unknown | €550k |
| 21 Jul 2021 | ADO Den Haag | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Roda JC | ADO Den Haag | Free / loan | €600k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | ADO Den Haag | Roda JC | Free / loan | €650k |
| 22 Feb 2013 | ADO U19 | ADO Den Haag | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | ADO U17 | ADO U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | ADO Youth | ADO U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Laakkwartier Y. | ADO Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.