Danny Bakker

31 yrs · Centre-back (also CM, DM) · Netherlands
SC Telstar · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 184 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€450k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€98k – €514k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€441k – €594k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€244k – €397k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€73k – €496k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€98k – €514k
Model value (performance-implied)€441k – €594k
Projected value (24 months)€244k – €397k
Dashed line: current market value (€450k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Danny Bakker's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 79

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average29.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €234k vs market €450k
Expected appreciationVery low-29% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2636 (86% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1216
Opponent strength
1316
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€244k – €397k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SC TelstarEredivisieCB30263686%420.200.21131612150.43
2019/20ADO Den HaagEredivisieDM22149164%010.060.10142012670.62
2018/19ADO Den HaagEredivisieDM24205367%210.130.12135613690.61
2017/18ADO Den HaagEredivisieCM343055100%010.030.07132813100.59
2016/17ADO Den HaagEredivisieCM19161653%100.060.14135812590.54
2015/16ADO Den HaagEredivisieCM33277091%330.190.21132613290.58
2014/15ADO Den HaagEredivisieCM20110536%110.160.20135112660.52
2013/14ADO Den HaagEredivisieDM23166955%300.160.15135613150.59
2012/13ADO Den HaagEredivisieCB120%000.000.07148512980.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerSC Telstar430310—
2020/21Knvb BekerRoda JC Kerkrade17700—
2019/20Knvb BekerADO Den Haag19000—
2016/17Knvb BekerADO Den Haag221000—
2014/15Knvb BekerADO Den Haag15600—
2013/14Knvb BekerADO Den Haag19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
Super League 1 · 2017
32€700k€250kfell
Mads Lauritsen
Superliga · 2022
29€400k€150kfell
Anestis Anastasiadis
Super League 1 · 2014
31€400k€300kfell
Rodrigo Erramuspe
Super League 1 · 2022
32€500k€300kfell
Stergios Dimopoulos
Super League 1 · 2020
30€300k€150kfell
Savvas Tsabouris
Super League 1 · 2018
32€300k€200kfell
Xavier Tomas
Super League 1 · 2015
29€500k€500kflat
Kirill Gotsuk
Premier Liga · 2022
30€1.0M€900kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026TelstarWithout ClubUnknown€450k
29 Sept 2023Without ClubTelstarUnknown€450k
1 Jul 2023NAC BredaWithout ClubUnknown€550k
21 Jul 2021ADO Den HaagNAC BredaFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2021Roda JCADO Den HaagFree / loan€600k
5 Oct 2020ADO Den HaagRoda JCFree / loan€650k
22 Feb 2013ADO U19ADO Den HaagUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2012ADO U17ADO U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011ADO YouthADO U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Laakkwartier Y.ADO YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.