Niklas Dorsch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niklas Dorsch's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-6.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (2269 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2269 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €947k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -35% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2269 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1499 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | DM | 22 | 1347 | 44% | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 1500 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1459 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 21 | 1388 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1560 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 11 | 478 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1508 | 1378 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2327 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1542 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 29 | 2079 | 68% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1367 | 1390 | 0.55 |
| 2017/18 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1473 | 1863 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 110 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 18 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | KAA Gent | 5 | 416 | 0 | 1 | 1520 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 3 | 244 | 1 | 1 | 1531 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artur Ioniță Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Mike Frantz Bundesliga · 2014 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Arkadiusz Reca Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Carlos Carmona Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Romain Amalfitano Ligue 1 · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Thomas Delaine Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jasmin Kurtic Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Filippo Bandinelli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Augsburg | Heidenheim | €3.5M | €4.0M |
| 8 Jul 2021 | KAA Gent | Augsburg | €7.0M | €8.0M |
| 22 Jul 2020 | Heidenheim | KAA Gent | €3.5M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bayern Munich | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Bayern II | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Nürnberg Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | DTFS | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Baiersdorf Jgd. | DTFS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.