Dennis Geiger

The model rates Dennis Geiger's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (592 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

592 (20% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.15

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.42

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.31 (rank 26)

Team strength (Elo)

1119

Opponent strength

1267

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€376k – €953k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-296 Elo); league level down (-274 Elo); role change CM -> AM; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -45% to +0%).

• ▲Small sample: 592 league minutes last season.
• ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

10 (MID)

Relative output kept

77%–107%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

80%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.