Blair Spittal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Blair Spittal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (854 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 26.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €190k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 854 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1151
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €195k – €491k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo); role change LM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -66% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 854 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 19 | 854 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1151 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 33 | 2245 | 76% | 4 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 1224 | 1237 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 32 | 2879 | 97% | 7 | 9 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 1250 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 31 | 2411 | 81% | 4 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1307 | 1202 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 29 | 2025 | 68% | 4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 1336 | 1258 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 5 | 282 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1311 | 1178 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 20 | 1011 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.42 | 1334 | 1189 | 0.52 |
| 2017/18 | Partick Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 28 | 1941 | 65% | 4 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 1287 | 1153 | 0.47 |
| 2015/16 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 33 | 2452 | 72% | 5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1263 | 1189 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 25 | 1282 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1322 | 1257 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 182 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Motherwell FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1289 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Partick Thistle FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 4 | 390 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Sousa Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €500k | €75k | fell |
| Yevgen Shakhov Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Facundo Bertoglio Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Mykyta Tatarkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Theodoros Vasilakakis Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Tolga Cigerci Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Ziya Erdal Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €450k | €125k | fell |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Motherwell FC | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ross County | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 3 Jan 2021 | Partick Thistle | Ross County | Free / loan | €325k |
| 7 Oct 2020 | Ross County | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Partick Thistle | Ross County | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dundee United | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Queen's Park | Dundee United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Queen's P. U20 | Queen's Park | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Queen's P. U17 | Queen's P. U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Rangers FC U17 | Queen's P. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.