Nicolai Poulsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolai Poulsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1247 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 42.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €133k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1247 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1441
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €112k – €203k
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -50% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1247 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 16 | 1247 | 63% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1272 | 1441 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 18 | 1336 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1287 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 20 | 1510 | 76% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1303 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 21 | 1837 | 93% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1282 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 20 | 1754 | 89% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1271 | 1303 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 18 | 1534 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1289 | 1335 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | DM | 22 | 1937 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1262 | 1317 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 24 | 2130 | 91% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1299 | 1225 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 11 | 812 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 1316 | 1205 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 19 | 1242 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1334 | 1253 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 31 | 2633 | 89% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1299 | 1342 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 29 | 2237 | 75% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1367 | 1349 | 0.48 |
| 2013/14 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 13 | 891 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1345 | 1345 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 6 | 187 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1368 | 1331 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 139 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 6 | 417 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 352 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1305 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 5 | 501 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Randers FC | 3 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 4 | 382 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Randers FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1569 |
| 2012/13 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Kvist Superliga · 2018 | 33 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Gary McDonald Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 32 | €325k | €350k | flat |
| Tim Sparv Superliga · 2019 | 32 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Thomas Augustinussen Superliga · 2013 | 32 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Sergiy Panasenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Marvin Bartley Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Ivan Leko Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 35 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Diego Romano Super League 1 · 2014 | 34 | €300k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Randers FC | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Sarpsborg 08 | Randers FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 16 Aug 2017 | Randers FC | Sarpsborg 08 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Freja (RFC II) | Randers FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Randers U19 | Freja (RFC II) | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Randers FC Yth. | Randers U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.