Ismael Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismael Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (2217 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €250k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2217 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €280k – €529k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -57% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CM | 26 | 2217 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1339 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CM | 25 | 1804 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1297 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CM | 26 | 1733 | 64% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1337 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | DM | 29 | 2508 | 93% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1397 | 1312 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2306 | 85% | 2 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 1428 | 1398 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | DM | 24 | 1992 | 74% | 3 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1414 | 1419 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 293 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 287 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 211 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celso Borges Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Thomas Kristensen Eredivisie · 2015 | 32 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Timofey Margasov Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Murat Yildirim Super Lig · 2019 | 32 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Ryan Koolwijk Eredivisie · 2018 | 33 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Georgi Kostadinov Premier Liga · 2020 | 30 | €1.4M | €900k | fell |
| Jim Goodwin Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 32 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Vladyslav Ogirya Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2024 | Without Club | Akhmat Grozny | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Al-Faisaly | Without Club | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 25 Jul 2021 | Akhmat Grozny | Al-Faisaly | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 9 Aug 2017 | Kalmar FF | Akhmat Grozny | €1.0M | €700k |
| 1 Feb 2013 | Crateús-CE | Kalmar FF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.