Yeray Álvarez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yeray Álvarez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 73th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €650k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 514 (15% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €341k – €816k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -67% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 514 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 7 | 514 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1472 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1781 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1504 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1155 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1471 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2337 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1492 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 22 | 1859 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1545 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1949 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1583 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2811 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1537 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2614 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1560 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 8 | 675 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1481 | 1490 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 26 | 2270 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1572 | 1591 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 580 | 1 | 0 | 1566 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 429 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 577 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1789 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 314 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 720 | 0 | 2 | 1441 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Zeegelaar Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Alessandro Gamberini Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Nemanja Tubic Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tito Laliga · 2018 | 33 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Júnior Díaz Bundesliga · 2016 | 33 | €750k | €150k | fell |
| Tobias Levels Bundesliga · 2017 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Sergio Postigo Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Charles Traoré Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bilbao U18 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Danok Bat Yth. | Bilbao Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Barakaldo CF Yo | Danok Bat Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.