Iñigo Lekue

33 yrs · Right-back (also LB) · Spain
Athletic Bilbao · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€266k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€720k – €2.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€360k – €920k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€478k – €1.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€266k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€720k – €2.0M
Projected value (24 months)€360k – €920k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Iñigo Lekue's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage54.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €574k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
600 (18% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1451
Opponent strength
1507
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€360k – €920k

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -53% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 600 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB1160018%000.000.09150714510.95
2024/25Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB1676822%000.000.08153415780.95
2023/24Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB27200159%030.130.14150715831.00
2022/23Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB20132339%010.070.08146814870.98
2021/22Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB25192656%020.090.11152715511.05
2020/21Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB1863419%000.000.07152915411.10
2019/20Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB1461718%010.150.15157315431.16
2018/19Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB42106%000.000.13158715401.14
2017/18Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB32210361%010.040.07158214901.11
2016/17Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB25157346%210.170.12157715911.11
2015/16Athletic BilbaoLaligaRB20115834%110.160.11153816411.17

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao440500—
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAthletic Bilbao3191001667
2025/26SupercopaAthletic Bilbao133001800
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao4216001503
2024/25SupercopaAthletic Bilbao163001750
2023/24Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao644400—
2022/23Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao314100—
2021/22Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao425600—
2020/21Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao430302—
2020/21SupercopaAthletic Bilbao259001792
2019/20Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao431801—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao9741001513
2017/18Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao218000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAthletic Bilbao3170001396
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao5316101436
2016/17Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao19000—
2015/16Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao537500—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao6334001511
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingAthletic Bilbao2180001450
2015/16SupercopaAthletic Bilbao124001936

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mensur Mujdza
Bundesliga · 2015
31€1.0M€250kfell
David López
Laliga · 2022
33€1.8M€2.5Mrose
David Rozehnal
Ligue 1 · 2013
33€1.0M€500kfell
Martín Montoya
Laliga · 2023
32€1.2M€450kfell
Kevin Vázquez
Laliga · 2024
31€800k€800kflat
Joseba Zaldua
Laliga · 2024
32€900k€900kflat
Mikel Labaka
Laliga · 2013
33€500k€500kflat
Coke
Laliga · 2021
34€800k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Athletic ClubRetiredUnknown€1.0M
1 Jul 2016Bilbao AthleticAthletic ClubUnknown€2.0M
1 Jul 2013CD BasconiaBilbao AthleticUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Danok Bat U19CD BasconiaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Danok Bat Yth.Danok Bat U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.