
Iñigo Lekue
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iñigo Lekue's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 54.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €574k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 600 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €360k – €920k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 600 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 11 | 600 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1507 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 16 | 768 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1534 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 27 | 2001 | 59% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1507 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 20 | 1323 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1468 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1926 | 56% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1527 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 18 | 634 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1529 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 14 | 617 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1573 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 4 | 210 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1587 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 32 | 2103 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1582 | 1490 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1573 | 46% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1577 | 1591 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 20 | 1158 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1538 | 1641 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 405 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 444 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 303 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1792 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 318 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 741 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 316 | 1 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 375 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2015/16 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1936 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mensur Mujdza Bundesliga · 2015 | 31 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| David López Laliga · 2022 | 33 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| David Rozehnal Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Martín Montoya Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €1.2M | €450k | fell |
| Kevin Vázquez Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Joseba Zaldua Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Mikel Labaka Laliga · 2013 | 33 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Coke Laliga · 2021 | 34 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Athletic Club | Retired | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Danok Bat U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Danok Bat Yth. | Danok Bat U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.