
Dan Barlaser
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dan Barlaser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (2298 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €618k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2298 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1200
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €426k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 30 | 2298 | 77% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1200 | 1280 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Rotherham United | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Rotherham United | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djihad Bizimana Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Amr Warda Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Afriyie Acquah Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Madson Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Joe Newell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Pablo de Lucas Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Mustafa Amini Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €550k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Middlesbrough | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 31 May 2026 | Hibernian FC | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Middlesbrough | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Rotherham | Middlesbrough | €1.0M | €2.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Newcastle | Rotherham | €780k | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Rotherham | Newcastle | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Newcastle | Rotherham | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2019 | Accrington | Newcastle | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Newcastle | Accrington | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Apr 2018 | Crewe Alexandra | Newcastle | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Newcastle | Crewe Alexandra | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Newcastle U23 | Newcastle | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Newcastle U18 | Newcastle U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.