Dan Barlaser

29 yrs · Defensive midfielder · England
Hibernian FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€291k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€392k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€426k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€892k – €1.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€291k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€392k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€426k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dan Barlaser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (2298 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 69

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average26.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €618k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2298 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1281
Opponent strength
1200
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€426k – €1.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hibernian FCScottish PremiershipDM30229877%030.120.10120012800.31

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupHibernian FC12900—
2020/21Fa CupRotherham United112000—
2019/20Fa CupRotherham United324600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Djihad Bizimana
Premier Liga · 2024
28€800k€850kflat
Amr Warda
Super League 1 · 2021
28€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Stelios Kitsiou
Super Lig · 2022
29€1.0M€550kfell
Afriyie Acquah
Super Lig · 2021
29€1.5M€400kfell
Madson
Super League 1 · 2019
28€900k€300kfell
Joe Newell
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€800k€700kflat
Pablo de Lucas
Super League 1 · 2017
31€800k€300kfell
Mustafa Amini
Superliga · 2020
27€550k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026MiddlesbroughWithout ClubUnknown€1.2M
31 May 2026Hibernian FCMiddlesbroughFree / loan€1.2M
2 Sept 2025MiddlesbroughHibernian FCFree / loan€2.0M
29 Jan 2023RotherhamMiddlesbrough€1.0M€2.0M
2 Oct 2020NewcastleRotherham€780kData unavailable
31 May 2020RotherhamNewcastleFree / loanData unavailable
3 Jul 2019NewcastleRotherhamFree / loanData unavailable
31 May 2019AccringtonNewcastleFree / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2018NewcastleAccringtonFree / loanData unavailable
11 Apr 2018Crewe AlexandraNewcastleFree / loanData unavailable
19 Jan 2018NewcastleCrewe AlexandraFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2017Newcastle U23NewcastleUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Newcastle U18Newcastle U21UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.