Álvaro García

The model rates Álvaro García's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2108 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2108 (62% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.43

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.46

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

82 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1518

Opponent strength

1490

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€415k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -82% to -61%).

• ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.