
Leeroy Owusu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leeroy Owusu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (1835 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €524k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1835 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1215
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €430k – €930k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -53% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RM | 22 | 1835 | 93% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1269 | 1215 | 0.47 |
| 2023/24 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 18 | 1526 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1298 | 1220 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2755 | 90% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1355 | 1237 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | RB | 29 | 2524 | 82% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1369 | 1265 | 0.56 |
| 2018/19 | De Graafschap Doetinchem | Eredivisie | RB | 34 | 3011 | 98% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1366 | 1214 | 0.61 |
| 2016/17 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 5 | 443 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1362 | 1236 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 4 | 197 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 115 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | De Graafschap Doetinchem | 2 | 210 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stavros Tsoukalas Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Marcos Paulo Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Mark Diemers Eredivisie · 2023 | 30 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Stef Peeters Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €1.4M | €700k | fell |
| Fernando Boldrin Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Robert Braber Eredivisie · 2013 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Tom Van Hyfte Eredivisie · 2016 | 30 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Grigoris Makos Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €700k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Odense BK | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Willem II | Odense BK | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | De Graafschap | Willem II | €325k | €650k |
| 3 Aug 2018 | Ajax U21 | De Graafschap | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Almere City | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U21 | Almere City | Free / loan | €250k |
| 22 Feb 2017 | Excelsior | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U21 | Excelsior | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Purmersteijn Y. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.