Ui-jo Hwang

34 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also LW, ST) · Korea, South
Alanyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: both · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€122k – €353k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€318k – €649k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€134k – €409k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€35k – €527k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€122k – €353k
Model value (performance-implied)€318k – €649k
Projected value (24 months)€134k – €409k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ui-jo Hwang's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2473 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage38th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €163k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2473 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.36
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1267
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€134k – €409k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; role change ST -> AM.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -50% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AlanyasporSuper LigAM33247381%460.360.36126712290.40
2024/25AlanyasporSuper LigST30146745%720.550.50126412470.39
2023/24AlanyasporSuper LigST82578%110.700.59131513130.45
2022/23Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST51426%010.630.41122114460.37
2021/22FC Girondins BordeauxLigue 1ST32252574%1120.460.60143113120.86
2020/21FC Girondins BordeauxLigue 1ST36252374%1230.540.54143413490.75
2019/20FC Girondins BordeauxLigue 1LW24163865%620.440.46144114360.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6399001488
2022/23Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios11800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jean Barrientos
Super League 1 · 2023
33€400k€200kfell
Juan Domínguez
Super League 1 · 2022
32€400k€250kfell
Tim Smolders
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
34€400k€200kfell
Elini Dimoutsos
Super League 1 · 2019
31€400k€250kfell
Jakob Ankersen
Superliga · 2023
33€400k€400kflat
Nuri Sahin
Super Lig · 2021
33€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Adrián Lucero
Super League 1 · 2019
35€200k€150kfell
Peter Nymann
Superliga · 2015
33€350k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Sept 2024Nott'm ForestAlanyasporUnknown€1.8M
30 Jun 2024AlanyasporNott'm ForestFree / loan€1.8M
6 Feb 2024Nott'm ForestAlanyasporFree / loan€3.0M
9 Jan 2024NorwichNott'm ForestFree / loan€3.0M
1 Sept 2023Nott'm ForestNorwichFree / loan€4.8M
30 Jun 2023FC SeoulNott'm ForestFree / loan€4.8M
5 Feb 2023Nott'm ForestFC SeoulFree / loan€5.0M
31 Jan 2023OlympiacosNott'm ForestFree / loan€5.0M
27 Aug 2022Nott'm ForestOlympiacosFree / loan€7.0M
26 Aug 2022G. BordeauxNott'm Forest€4.0M€7.0M
14 Jul 2019Gamba OsakaG. Bordeaux€2.0M€1.6M
1 Jul 2017Seongnam FCGamba Osaka€1.5M€275k
1 Jan 2013Yonsei Univ.Seongnam FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2011Seongnam FC U18Yonsei Univ.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2008Seongnam FC U15Seongnam FC U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2005Yongin ESSeongnam FC U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ui-jo Hwang · MoneyballAI