Robin Fellhauer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Fellhauer's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-4.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2809 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2809 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -26% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | RM | 34 | 2809 | 92% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1497 | 1421 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Parolo Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €4.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Kadir Bekmezci Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alexandru Gatcan Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Zinedine Ferhat Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €2.8M | €3.5M | rose |
| Xavier Chavalerin Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Ahmed Elmohamady Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Jens Stryger Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Denis Glushakov Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | SV Elversberg | Augsburg | €700k | €1.8M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | SC Freiburg II | SV Elversberg | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Saarbrücken U17 | SC Freiburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Saarbrück. Yth. | Saarbrücken U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.