
Semih Güler
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Semih Güler's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €405k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2141 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1154
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €255k – €554k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -66% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1379 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1269 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 14 | 762 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1236 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1830 | 56% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1306 | 1040 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 13 | 862 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1278 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2801 | 82% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1293 | 1250 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2178 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1294 | 1410 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 12 | 472 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1239 | 1273 | 0.42 |
| 2014/15 | Eskisehirspor | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1344 | 1352 | 0.72 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Adana Demirspor | 6 | 519 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Giannis Skondras Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Igor Jovanovic Super League 1 · 2020 | 31 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Oleksandr Chornomorets Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Theodoros Tripotseris Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Jordan Obita Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Lamine Gassama Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.0M | €150k | fell |
| Nikola Zizic Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Gaziantep FK | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €900k |
| 11 Feb 2025 | Adana Demirspor | Gaziantep FK | €1.0M | €800k |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Eskisehirspor | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Eyüpspor | Eskisehirspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Eskisehirspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 27 Aug 2014 | Westfalia Herne | Eskisehirspor | €20k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | W. Herne U19 | Westfalia Herne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.