Semih Güler

31 yrs · Centre-back · Türkiye
Gaziantep FK · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€800k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€215k – €706k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€283k – €526k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€255k – €554k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€424k – €311k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€215k – €706k
Model value (performance-implied)€283k – €526k
Projected value (24 months)€255k – €554k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Semih Güler's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 40

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average32.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €405k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-53% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2141 (70% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1154
Opponent strength
1269
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€255k – €554k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 61% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -66% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KayserisporSuper LigCB17137945%000.000.04126911470.40
2025/26Gaziantep FKSuper LigCB1476225%000.000.04123611670.40
2024/25Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB21183056%200.100.10130610400.39
2024/25Gaziantep FKSuper LigCB1386227%100.100.09127811980.39
2023/24Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB32280182%010.030.04129312500.45
2022/23Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB30217867%010.040.05129414100.50
2021/22Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB1247214%000.000.05123912730.42
2014/15EskisehirsporSuper LigCB1451%000.000.05134413520.72

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAdana Demirspor6519001436

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Stelios Kitsiou
Super Lig · 2024
31€550k€550kflat
Giannis Skondras
Super League 1 · 2021
31€300k€75kfell
Igor Jovanovic
Super League 1 · 2020
31€350k€150kfell
Oleksandr Chornomorets
Premier Liga · 2023
30€500k€200kfell
Theodoros Tripotseris
Super League 1 · 2015
29€450k€350kfell
Jordan Obita
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€400k€150kfell
Lamine Gassama
Super Lig · 2020
31€1.0M€150kfell
Nikola Zizic
Super League 1 · 2019
31€350k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
16 Jan 2026Gaziantep FKKayserisporFree / loan€900k
11 Feb 2025Adana DemirsporGaziantep FK€1.0M€800k
16 Jan 2019EskisehirsporAdana DemirsporFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2017EyüpsporEskisehirsporFree / loan€100k
31 Aug 2015EskisehirsporEyüpsporFree / loan€50k
27 Aug 2014Westfalia HerneEskisehirspor€20kData unavailable
1 Jan 2013W. Herne U19Westfalia HerneUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Semih Güler · MoneyballAI