Adam Buksa

30 yrs · Striker · Poland
FC Midtjylland · Superliga · Foot: left · Height: 191 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.6M – €4.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€889k – €2.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.8M – €817k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €4.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€889k – €2.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Adam Buksa's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (1120 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.6M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €9.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1120 (33% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.32
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.50
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1465
Opponent strength
1504
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€889k – €2.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; team strength up (+66 Elo); league level up (+192 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -78% to -53%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1120 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Udinese CalcioSerie AST2591127%300.300.50150414420.93
2025/26FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST320911%100.430.29114315620.47
2024/25FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST1599850%700.630.42128513990.38
2023/24AntalyasporSuper LigST33292786%1620.550.58130012440.45
2022/23RC LensLigue 1ST8943%000.000.32136416260.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland3165101317
2025/26Italy CupUdinese Calcio213600—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland8720211536
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland6447101357
2024/25Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aleksandr Ryazantsev
Premier Liga · 2016
30€2.8M€500kfell
Manolo Gabbiadini
Serie A · 2021
30€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Chimy Ávila
Laliga · 2024
30€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Riccardo Meggiorini
Serie A · 2014
29€1.5M€3.5Mrose
Stéphane Bahoken
Ligue 1 · 2022
30€4.0M€950kfell
Kevin Lasagna
Serie A · 2022
30€3.5M€950kfell
Nicolas de Préville
Ligue 1 · 2019
28€4.0M€3.0Mfell
Wanderson
Premier Liga · 2016
30€4.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
26 Aug 2025MidtjyllandUdinese€5.0M€6.0M
11 Jul 2024LensMidtjylland€4.0M€6.0M
30 Jun 2024AntalyasporLensFree / loan€6.0M
18 Jul 2023LensAntalyasporFree / loan€5.0M
1 Jul 2022New EnglandLens€6.0M€9.0M
1 Jan 2020Pogon SzczecinNew England€4.2M€1.0M
1 Jul 2018Zaglebie LubinPogon Szczecin€350k€200k
30 Jun 2018Pogon SzczecinZaglebie LubinFree / loan€200k
8 Jan 2018Zaglebie LubinPogon SzczecinFree / loan€225k
31 Aug 2016Lechia GdanskZaglebie Lubin€50k€150k
1 Jul 2014Novara U19Lechia GdanskFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2013Wisla U19Novara U19€5kData unavailable
1 Jan 2013Garbarnia U19Wisla U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Hutnik U19Garbarnia U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.