Igor Kalinin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Kalinin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €260k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1190 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1198
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €207k – €460k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-90 Elo); league level down (-60 Elo); role change CB -> LB; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1190 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | LB | 16 | 1190 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1198 | 1104 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1654 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1288 | 1194 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | LB | 15 | 899 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1355 | 1244 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1198 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1343 | 1239 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LB | 15 | 1000 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1369 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LB | 22 | 1914 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1346 | 1277 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LB | 6 | 529 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1439 | 1287 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LM | 6 | 433 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 1403 | 1358 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | LB | 2 | 98 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 1285 | 1522 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | Zirka Kropyvnytskyi | Premier Liga | LB | 5 | 168 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1402 | 1225 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1261 | 1455 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CM | 3 | 187 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1406 | 1184 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | LM | 1 | 59 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1343 | 1339 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 301 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Kolinger Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Ivan Goranov Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Marko Gobeljic Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Murat Ucar Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Yevgeniy Tkachuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Kyriakos Kivrakidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Kyriakos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Gastón Campi Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2025 | Rostov | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fakel Voronezh | Rostov | Free / loan | €700k |
| 8 Sept 2022 | Rostov | Fakel Voronezh | Free / loan | €750k |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Ural | Rostov | €600k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Moscow | Ural | €350k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Ural | Dynamo Moscow | Free / loan | €800k |
| 21 Feb 2020 | Dinamo Moscow | Ural | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rubin Kazan | Dinamo Moscow | €500k | €700k |
| 20 Sept 2018 | Without Club | Rubin Kazan | Unknown | €500k |
| 3 Aug 2018 | Krasnodar | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 2 Feb 2018 | Volgar | Krasnodar | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Zirka | Volgar | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Sept 2016 | Without Club | Zirka | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Zorya Lugansk | Without Club | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Without Club | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Illichivets | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Illichivets II | Illichivets | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.