Scott Tanser
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Scott Tanser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €94k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 647 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.70
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1153
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €75k – €153k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; team strength down (-75 Elo); role change LM -> LB; relative output up 292% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -43% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 647 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 18 | 647 | 22% | 1 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 1153 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 25 | 1620 | 55% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1214 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 33 | 2862 | 96% | 1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1247 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 25 | 1674 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1331 | 1217 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 26 | 2121 | 71% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 1314 | 1223 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 28 | 2029 | 68% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 1309 | 1307 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 21 | 1689 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1305 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 33 | 2880 | 97% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1309 | 1214 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 24 | 1760 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1288 | 1255 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 3 | 188 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 191 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgeniy Tkachuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Ricki Lamie Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €325k | €200k | fell |
| Giorgi Rekhviashvili Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Sakib Aytac Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €225k | €100k | fell |
| Nikola Jakimovski Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Loïck Landre Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Sean Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Yuriy Kravchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | St. Mirren | Falkirk | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | St. Johnstone | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Port Vale | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €125k |
| 27 Jan 2017 | Rochdale | Port Vale | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Rochdale U18 | Rochdale | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.