Sandi Lovrić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sandi Lovrić's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (519 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 50.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 519 (15% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1322
- Opponent strength
- 1544
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; changed club; team strength down (-67 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -27% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 519 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CM | 8 | 361 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1544 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 6 | 158 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 1439 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2328 | 68% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 1479 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1990 | 58% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1486 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 37 | 2349 | 69% | 5 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 1473 | 1421 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 3 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 156 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szymon Żurkowski Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ozan Tufan Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €3.8M | €2.8M | fell |
| Ahmad Benali Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kike Pérez Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Edenilson Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Nicola Rigoni Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €6.5M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hellas Verona | Udinese | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Udinese | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Lugano | Udinese | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Sturm Graz | FC Lugano | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Stmk.-Sturm U18 | Sturm Graz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Stmk.-Sturm U16 | Stmk.-Sturm U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stmk.-Sturm U15 | Stmk.-Sturm U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Lienz Yth. | Sturm Graz U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Nußdorf/D. Jgd | Lienz Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Lienz Yth. | Nußdorf/D. Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.