Gerard Gumbau
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gerard Gumbau's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.51x the positional average in the league (1172 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €480k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1172 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €380k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -76% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1172 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | DM | 28 | 1172 | 34% | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1505 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | DM | 22 | 843 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1535 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | DM | 35 | 2685 | 79% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1502 | 1315 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Elche CF | Laliga | DM | 35 | 2744 | 80% | 1 | 6 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1513 | 1353 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Elche CF | Laliga | DM | 31 | 1888 | 55% | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1537 | 1421 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | CD Leganés | Laliga | DM | 16 | 1197 | 35% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1563 | 1481 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | CD Leganés | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1432 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1544 | 1418 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 3 | 43 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1451 | 1879 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 302 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1287 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 199 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 3 | 249 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 310 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 4 | 288 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 6 | 457 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Farnerud Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Daniel Didavi Bundesliga · 2021 | 31 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
| Borja Fernández Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Ridgeciano Haps Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Esteban Granero Laliga · 2018 | 31 | €1.5M | €2.4M | rose |
| Andrea Cossu Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Geoffroy Serey Dié Bundesliga · 2015 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Giampiero Pinzi Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | Granada CF | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Granada CF | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rayo Vallecano | Granada CF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 15 Jul 2024 | Granada CF | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Elche CF | Granada CF | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Girona | Elche CF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 14 Aug 2019 | CD Leganés | Girona | €500k | €2.5M |
| 12 Jul 2017 | Barcelona B | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Girona FC B | Barcelona B | €25k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Girona U19 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Girona FC Youth | Girona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.