Kiki
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kiki's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €167k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1530 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €122k – €280k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -41% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1530 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | LB | 27 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1302 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | LB | 26 | 1628 | 53% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1356 | 1154 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LB | 13 | 828 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1339 | 1214 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | LB | 28 | 2230 | 73% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1422 | 1290 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | LB | 25 | 1786 | 58% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1378 | 1252 | 0.67 |
| 2018/19 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | LB | 4 | 236 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1333 | 1313 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CD Feirense | Liga Portugal | CM | 2 | 98 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1341 | 1279 | 0.64 |
| 2012/13 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1303 | 1451 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 7 | 356 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Watson Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 32 | €275k | €300k | flat |
| Aaron Martin Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kontodimos Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Andriy Khomyn Premier Liga · 2015 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Maksym Maksymenko Premier Liga · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €250k | fell |
| Theodoros Tripotseris Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Lorenzo Burnet Eredivisie · 2023 | 32 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Denis Kolinger Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Ural | Avs FS | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Vizela | Ural | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Aug 2019 | B SAD | Vizela | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Feirense | B SAD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Felgueiras | Feirense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Sept 2018 | Feirense | Felgueiras | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olhanense | Feirense | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Gil Vicente | Olhanense | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Atlético CP | Gil Vicente | Unknown | €350k |
| 31 Jan 2014 | Dag & Red FC | Atlético CP | Unknown | €100k |
| 23 Sept 2013 | Rio Ave | Dag & Red FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Rio Ave | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Porto U17 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Padroense U17 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Porto U15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Marinhas S15 | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Marinhas Fo. | Marinhas S15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.