Melih Kabasakal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Melih Kabasakal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.62x the positional average in the league (1512 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €306k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1512 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1285
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €239k – €505k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; changed club; relative output up 194% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -59% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1512 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | DM | 24 | 1409 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 1285 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | DM | 3 | 103 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1259 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | DM | 31 | 2676 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1266 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2022/23 | Istanbulspor | Super Lig | DM | 17 | 1349 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1294 | 1231 | 0.50 |
| 2015/16 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 7 | 223 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1381 | 1320 | 0.64 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Neira Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Nikolaos Kaltsas Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Juan Muñiz Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Anas Tahiri Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €750k | €450k | fell |
| Fernando Boldrin Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Aias Aosman Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Tobias Sana Superliga · 2019 | 30 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Pavlo Orikhovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Eyüpspor | Gaziantep FK | €400k | €700k |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Istanbulspor | Eyüpspor | Unknown | €525k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | E. Erokspor | Istanbulspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jul 2018 | Trabzonspor | E. Erokspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | 1461 Trabzon | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 2 Aug 2017 | Trabzonspor | 1461 Trabzon | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Sariyer | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Aug 2016 | Trabzonspor | Sariyer | Free / loan | €250k |
| 28 Dec 2015 | Trabzonspor U21 | Trabzonspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Trabzonspor U19 | Trabzonspor U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 14 Feb 2014 | Samsunspor Yth | Trabzonspor U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.