Emre Akbaba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emre Akbaba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (986 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 31.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €211k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 986 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1252
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €140k – €387k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 986 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | AM | 23 | 986 | 32% | 4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 1252 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | AM | 36 | 2219 | 68% | 7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 1281 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CM | 32 | 2684 | 78% | 7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1288 | 1250 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | ST | 27 | 1734 | 54% | 7 | 4 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 1295 | 1410 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 5 | 173 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1250 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 31 | 2252 | 66% | 10 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 1246 | 1322 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1263 | 1326 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 27 | 1405 | 39% | 5 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 1248 | 1425 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 17 | 982 | 32% | 4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.34 | 1322 | 1384 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 16 | 742 | 24% | 2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 1359 | 1511 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 1 | 29 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1356 | 1325 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 32 | 2866 | 94% | 14 | 10 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 1388 | 1345 | 0.68 |
| 2016/17 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 33 | 2894 | 95% | 6 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 1382 | 1304 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 8 | 257 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1432 | 1347 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Adana Demirspor | 6 | 504 | 1 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1314 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 1 | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1487 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Jörgensen Superliga · 2017 | 33 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Timofey Margasov Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Martin Woods Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €275k | €250k | flat |
| Chico Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Martin Spelmann Superliga · 2019 | 32 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Nicolas Marin Super League 1 · 2014 | 34 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Richard Tait Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 34 | €350k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Adana Demirspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 8 Sept 2022 | Galatasaray | Adana Demirspor | €500k | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 6 Sept 2021 | Galatasaray | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 18 Aug 2018 | Alanyaspor | Galatasaray | €4.0M | €5.5M |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | Unknown | €2.3M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Alanyaspor | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Sept 2013 | Antalyaspor | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 4 Sept 2013 | K.Maras BB | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2013 | Antalyaspor U21 | K.Maras Belediye | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Oct 2012 | FC Montfermeil | Antalyaspor U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.