Roman Ezhov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roman Ezhov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (886 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 12.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €452k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 886 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €385k – €704k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; team strength down (-61 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -50% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 886 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RW | 18 | 886 | 33% | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 1322 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RW | 21 | 1371 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 1295 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RW | 17 | 1295 | 48% | 3 | 6 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 1324 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RW | 22 | 1759 | 65% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1334 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RW | 30 | 2513 | 93% | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 1356 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 400 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Stojiljkovic Liga Portugal · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Massimo Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 30 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Aleksandr Yushin Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Giorgi Merebashvili Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Oussama Darfalou Eredivisie · 2020 | 27 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Guyon Fernandez Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Aleksey Kashtanov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Zequinha Liga Portugal · 2017 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | KS Samara | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Chertanovo | KS Samara | €200k | €550k |
| 12 Aug 2014 | Akad Chertanovo | Chertanovo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.