Nikolay Rasskazov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolay Rasskazov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (1761 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €648k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1761 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1361
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €455k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1761 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RM | 26 | 1761 | 65% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 1361 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 1886 | 70% | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1320 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RB | 26 | 1919 | 71% | 2 | 5 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 1327 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RM | 12 | 676 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 1343 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 4 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1364 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 18 | 1026 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1341 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | RB | 16 | 1238 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1350 | 1216 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1547 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1374 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 16 | 1364 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1435 | 1444 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 10 | 545 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 251 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 327 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 320 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | Arsenal Tula | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Holla Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Krisztián Vadócz Superliga · 2013 | 28 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Tino-Sven Susic Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Christophe Lepoint Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Mladen Bartulovic Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Osama Rashid Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €1.2M | €1.5M | rose |
| Kristiyan Malinov Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mattheus Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2023 | Spartak Moscow | KS Samara | €33k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Arsenal Tula | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Spartak Moscow | Arsenal Tula | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.